Reading & Literacy

Kindergartners’ Math and Reading Scores Can Predict Their 3rd Grade Performance

By Sarah Schwartz — June 25, 2026 3 min read
Estes Elementary School kindergarten students Evelyn Bolmer, front left; Jase Bellamy, back right; and Eric Guarneros, front right, listen as their teacher Faith Harralson assists Bolmer with a math equation, as they ride pedal desks at school in Owensboro, Ky., Jan. 19, 2016.
  • Save to favorites
  • Print

Kindergarten, in theory, is supposed to set up all children for success in later elementary grades—laying the foundation for reading and math skills that support their growth.

But that’s not always the case. Across the country, kids who enter kindergarten with lower reading and math abilities tend to stay behind their peers through 3rd grade, new data show.

The research, from assessment provider NWEA, tracked the math and reading achievement of a nationally representative sample of more than 400,000 students who started kindergarten in the 2021-22 school year, using data from the organization’s MAP Growth tests.

Kindergartners who started school scoring in the bottom 20% had only a 1 in 10 chance of reading proficiency by 3rd grade. Those odds worsened if students were still struggling in 1st grade—only 1 in 50 who remained in the bottom quintile were proficient by the end of 3rd grade.

“The most striking thing was just how quickly the door closed for the students who were at the bottom of the achievement distribution,” said Megan Kuhfeld, NWEA’s director of growth modeling and data analytics and the lead author of the report.

These data follow a long-standing pattern: For decades, research studies have shown that kindergartners’ and 1st graders’ early reading difficulties can lead to persistent challenges in literacy.

But in recent years, most states have passed legislation aimed, in part, at tackling this exact problem. These “science of reading” laws require that schools align their approach to teaching early reading with evidence-based practice, and most mandate screening young children for reading difficulties and providing appropriate interventions.

At least 10 states have passed similar legislation in math, requiring schools to find and support elementary schoolers struggling in the subject.

“My hope was that we had improved access to evidence-based core instruction and supplemental reading interventions during the last decades, across the nation,” said Colby Hall, an associate professor of education at the University of Virginia. Hall, who studies effective literacy instruction for students with reading difficulties, was not involved with the NWEA study.

“These findings are dispiriting,” she said, “even if they are tremendously important.”

Early intervention is key, researchers say

Despite these results, a kindergartner’s future academic trajectory is not necessarily set in stone on day one, said Kuhfeld.

“The earlier that students are identified as being off track for literacy, the larger the window for intervening,” she said.

There’s ample research evidence to show that early intervention can work, said Hall.

So why do the NWEA data show so many students struggling, even as more states require schools to provide support in the earliest grades?

It’s possible that timing played a role, said Kuhfeld. Many states rolled out science of reading legislation during the 2021-22 school year, but it may not have been in effect long enough by that point for that year’s kindergarten class to see an impact, she said.

Nuances of implementation could also affect outcomes, said Hall.

“Even though we’ve made a lot of progress, we are still not seeing great universal screening across the nation right now,” she said.

Early reading difficulties can come in different forms, she said, and a district that only screens for problems with word-reading might miss students who need help with listening comprehension, for example.

Not all screeners are effective at all grade levels, she added, and finding a test that can flag a struggling kindergartner can be more challenging than finding one that works in grades 3 and up. (Hall recommended the National Center on Intensive Intervention’s tools charts, which break down evidence of effectiveness by grade level.)

In future research, Kuhfeld hopes to analyze the reading-achievement trajectories of students by state, to see if the timing of reading-legislation implementation explains any variability.

It’s too soon to say the laws aren’t working, she said, “but it’s sobering to see these data, given how much effort has been put into literacy.”

Events

This content is provided by our sponsor. It is not written by and does not necessarily reflect the views of Education Week's editorial staff.
Sponsor
Classroom Technology Webinar
Screen Time and AI: An Evidence Playbook for School Leaders
Get a clearer picture of the current policy landscape, a framework for evaluating new tools, plus language to use in the next board meeting.
Content provided by Instructure
This content is provided by our sponsor. It is not written by and does not necessarily reflect the views of Education Week's editorial staff.
Sponsor
School & District Management Webinar
The Principal's Role in Collective Efficacy and Student Outcomes
Learn practical strategies that help principals translate their confidence into stronger collective teacher efficacy and student outcomes.
Content provided by Otus
This content is provided by our sponsor. It is not written by and does not necessarily reflect the views of Education Week's editorial staff.
Sponsor
Education Funding Webinar
What Schools Need to Know About the Federal Education Freedom Tax Credit
What schools need to know about the federal Education Freedom Tax Credit: A practical guide from a licensed teacher and policy expert.
Content provided by LearningSpring

EdWeek Top School Jobs

Teacher Jobs
Search over ten thousand teaching jobs nationwide — elementary, middle, high school and more.
View Jobs
Principal Jobs
Find hundreds of jobs for principals, assistant principals, and other school leadership roles.
View Jobs
Administrator Jobs
Over a thousand district-level jobs: superintendents, directors, more.
View Jobs
Support Staff Jobs
Search thousands of jobs, from paraprofessionals to counselors and more.
View Jobs

Read Next

Reading & Literacy Q&A The Science of Reading Has an Implementation Problem. Could Engineering Help?
Researchers suggest that an "engineering of reading" could better translate evidence into practice.
11 min read
Natalia Gutierrez, age 10 (5th grade), Garrett Christian, age 10 (5th grade), William Robinson, age 8 (3rd grade), wait to begin reading time in the afternoon at Creative Minds School in Wichita, Kansas on September 15, 2026.
Fifth graders Natalia Gutierrez, 10, and Garrett Christian, 10, and 3rd grader William Robinson, 8, wait to begin reading time in the afternoon at Creative Minds School in Wichita, Kan., on Sept. 15, 2026. Applying reading research to the classroom can be challenging, and engineering principles could help, some researchers say.
Melissa Lukenbaugh for Education Week
Reading & Literacy Quiz Quiz Yourself: Helping Older Readers Catch Up—What Really Works?
Test your knowledge of how schools can better support older struggling readers with targeted, effective literacy instruction.
Reading & Literacy How Dolly Parton's Imagination Library Will Still Aim to Nurture a 'Love of Reading'
A literacy expert and librarian discuss how access books can stir a lifelong passion among children.
4 min read
This photo taken on August 26, 2026, shows a book from the late music icon Dolly Parton's Imagination Library charitable program among flowers left at a memorial to the singer-songwriter, in her hometown of Sevierville, Tennessee. Parton's successful children's book donation project was borne of personal anguish: her own father grew up illiterate in rural Tennessee. The program sends books to children by mail for free, from birth until age five.
A book from the late music icon Dolly Parton's Imagination Library's charitable program is shown at a memorial in her hometown of Sevierville, Tenn., on Aug. 26, 2026. Her organization has donated over 300 million reading materials to children in the United States and internationally since the program started.
Michael Mathes / AFP via Getty Images
Reading & Literacy More Kids Are Learning to Read on AI-Generated Text. What Are the Pros and Cons?
AI tools can easily create practice passages. Are they comparable to those written by humans?
8 min read
COLORADO SPRINGS, CO- NOVEMBER 17: Teacher Adam Gravenor uses AI technology to assist his instruction at Coronado High School in Colorado Springs, Colo., on Nov. 17, 2025.
Teacher Adam Gravenor uses AI technology to assist his instruction at Coronado High School in Colorado Springs, Colo., on Nov. 17, 2025. As AI continues to enter the classroom, some teachers are using both general tools and those provided by educational publishers to generate "decodable" text to supplement phonics lessons, or texts of varying complexity.
RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images